So here’s what we learned from “the most important by-election in history.” First, that Reform’s popularity may have peaked. Of the 89 constituencies where it came runner-up to Labour in 2024, Makerfield had their second-highest vote share and they swept the board there at recent local elections so a win should have been nailed-on. Second, that the Greens can be squeezed to irrelevance by a proper left-of-centre campaign. Third, that in Andy Burnham , Labour has someone it knows can beat Nigel