When thinking about the political transition that’s so desperately needed in Iran, it’s useful to conduct a thought experiment: When have outside attempts to encourage political change succeeded and when have they made the situation worse? The list of negative examples is long. Iraq and Afghanistan are the most bitter recent examples. But arguably the misapplication of force is the leitmotif of modern U.S. foreign policy, a chain of failure girdling the globe from Cuba to Somalia, Nicaragua to