When Eli Goldfine messaged me on X, I thought it was a joke. He said he wanted to help me with my prediction markets beat. "Prediction markets, AI, the universe. 13yo," his bio read. I didn't immediately spot the statistics reference in his username, @realTomBayes. When I asked him who he was, he replied: "My name's Eli, I am legit 13 years old." I knew the prediction-market industry skews young; the founder of Polymarket and cofounders of Kalshi are 27, 29, and 29, respectively. Many users are