The more a state overestimates its abilities, underestimates the adversary's and dismisses uncertainty, the more likely disaster will ensue, says a professor. MEDFORD, Massachusetts:  Wars are rarely lost first on the battlefield. They are lost in leaders’ minds − when leaders misread what they and their adversaries can do, when their confidence substitutes for comprehension, and when the last war is mistaken for the next one. The Trump administration’s miscalculation of Iran is not an anomaly.