Professional forecasters adjust their inflation forecasts in a distinctly lumpy pattern, making infrequent but substantial revisions. Strategic concerns play a significant role---forecasters are more likely to adjust, and by larger amounts, when their forecasts deviate from the consensus. Using a fixed-event forecasting framework, we document the impact of lumpiness and consensus pressure on forecast adjustments. Our quantitative model, which integrates Bayesian belief updating with forecast

Tag-uri: Inflatie