This paper examines the impact of protectionist policies on exports within global value chains (GVCs), using the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. Leveraging UK customs data (2017–2020) and a shift-share identification strategy, we estimate an elasticity of exports with respect to intermediate imports of 0.4. A one standard-deviation increase in COVID restrictions in sourcing countries led to a 3.7% decline in intermediate exports. These findings reveal a paradox: policies aimed at

Tag-uri: Coronavirus