European NATO members face the dual challenge of Russia’s military threat and the United States’ expectations about significantly greater ‘burden sharing’, or even ‘burden shifting’, for Europe’s defence. Their commitment at The Hague Summit in June 2025 to invest 5% of GDP in defence expenditure annually by 2035 acknowledged the need to develop a more sovereign European defence capability and reduce critical dependencies. The latest IISS Strategic Dossier assesses the progress that has been