Charting the uncharted: The (un)intended consequences of oil sanctions and dark shipping
Flavius Niculescu
Despite formal restrictions, untracked oil continues to reach global markets, calling into question the true effectiveness of oil sanctions. This column presents a novel ship clustering model to detect ‘dark shipping’ – where tankers disable their location signals to evade detection – linked to sanctioned oil transport. Following Western sanctions on Russia in 2022, officially recorded Russian oil exports declined, but shipments via dark vessels more than doubled. A significant share ultimately
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