A year of sustained losses has left Iran’s grand strategy in ruins. The near-destruction of Hamas in Gaza, the evisceration of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria deprived Iran of the proxies it had long relied on to threaten Israel. As a result, in June, Israel was able to conduct its 12-day war against Iran unencumbered by worries about regional escalation. That war demolished a long-held assumption about Iranian deterrence—the belief