As the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran drags on, it’s possible to imagine both a negotiated settlement and a resumption of the fighting. The outcome—either war or peace—depends on how the three parties to the conflict see their goals, what risks they’re willing to take, and what limitations they face at home and abroad. In an earlier piece, I wrote about gaps in our knowledge of Iran today , which make it difficult to predict the country’s next moves. This article identifies similar gaps in our