Photo-Illustration: X Election betting has well and truly broken through in the 2024 campaign. Mainstream publications now cite odds alongside polls and other election models, while millions of people are watching them directly — hoping, wondering, or fearing that the power of the market has discovered something close to the real probabilities of the election. This is still new. In 2020, election betting was a fringe but growing phenomenon. On Polymarket, the total bet volume on the outcome of