Unless Ukraine can magically move in and clear the Russian breach into Kostiantynivka in the very near future, the fate of the battle for the city is likely already decided, and will unfold over the rest of summer and perhaps early autumn. What we are likely to see instead of a clean encirclement are stories of difficult, dangerous withdrawals through contested terrain under a sky saturated with drones, similar to what was seen in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad half a year earlier. Read the full