Every few weeks, a new wargame, a new intelligence leak, or a new headline arrives suggesting that Russia is about to attack the Baltic states. The conversation has become so constant that it risks losing meaning, so it is worth pausing on what the people who actually look at the question for a living are saying, and what they are not. The most direct answer this year comes from Estonia's spy chief. In a late-2025 interview with public broadcaster ERR, Kaupo Rosin, director general of Estonia's