Moscow must sharpen nuclear deterrence, revise doctrine and defeat Kiev to avert a wider war with the West and NATO powers The accelerating flow of events, each overlapping and contradicting the other, is bewildering and makes it difficult to grasp the essence of what is happening. I shall attempt to interpret the course of history, drawing on my own experience and knowledge, as well as on the fact that over the past 35 years I have never been significantly wrong in my assessments and forecasts.