Democrats eyeing a return to power in the U.S. Senate are seeing early signs of opportunity in the 2026 midterms , but new prediction‑market data suggests the road to outright control remains narrow and highly fragile. A state‑by‑state analysis combining odds from Polymarket and the federally regulated Kalshi exchange on Tuesday morning showed Democrats favored in several competitive Senate races , while Republicans retained an edge thanks to the number of safe GOP seats and the high bar