One look back at our predictions from last year on what Sundance films would be Oscar contenders proves that the January festival still has sway over the awards race happening a year later. The following article is an excerpt from the new edition of “ IndieWire’s The Lead Up ,” a weekly newsletter in which our Awards Editor takes readers on the awards trail, interviewing key figures responsible for some of the most compelling stories of the season, and offering predictions on who will win.