The trade war launched by the Trump administration follows a longer-term pattern of geo-economic fragmentation, but it dwarfs all prior expectations. This column looks beyond the trade war, asking if, in a more fragmented global economy, official investors should continue to hold US federal debt to the same extent as before. The answer is likely no, due to the increasing exchange rate risk on this debt as global trade stalls. Yet this does not imply the demise of the dollar as the global