A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’ A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’ “Horekunden” was rapidly losing patience. His frustration was with the Institute for the Study of War, a US thinktank which produces a daily map of the frontline in Ukraine. For Horekunden, and other anonymous gamblers, the map was a “ disjointed, incoherent mess … like the painting