How polling failures and other factors led to prediction markets

Mihaela Chircă

Though prediction markets have been legal in the U.S. for less than 18 months, they can't stop making news and making money . On prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, users can stake real money on just about anything, from the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election to when Taylor Swift will get married . But this isn't simple entertainment: In theory, these wagers serve as a means of collecting the public's insights into the future. That's why you may have seen CNN's pundits

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