“On the eve of each war at least one of the nations miscalculated its bargaining power,” wrote the historian Geoffrey Blainey in his book The Causes of War . “In that sense every war comes from a misunderstanding. And in that sense every war is an accident.” The U.S.-Iran war—or, to be accurate, its latest, and most dramatic iteration—grew from a high-stakes exchange of miscalculations between two men. Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei have little in common except for a vainglorious hubris that has

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