Small boat arrivals are set to fall well short of dire warnings issued when Labour came to power. Ministers were told to expect more than 50,000 crossings by the end of 2024. But with a week to go the figure is just over 35,000, despite a record number of 'red days' - days where weather conditions are best suited for crossings - in the second half of the year. New analysis found that despite favourable weather, arrivals in the last six months will be around 10,000 lower than the same period in