A salient feature of the post-COVID inflation surge is that economic activity has remained resilient despite unfavorable supply-side developments. We develop a macroeconomic model with nonlinear price and wage Phillips curves, endogenous intrinsic indexation, and an unobserved components representation of a cost-push shock that is consistent with these observations. In our model, a persistent large adverse supply shock can lead to a persistent inflation surge while output expands if the central

Tag-uri: Inflatie Coronavirus