DP19561 Revisiting the Phillips and Beveridge Curves: Insights from the 2020s Inflation Surge

Inflatie

This paper reexamines the Phillips and Beveridge curves to explain the inflation surge in the U.S. during the 2020s. We argue that the pre-surge consensus regarding both curves requires substantial revision. We propose the Inverse-L (INV-L) New Keynesian Phillips Curve as a replacement for the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The INV-L curve is piecewise-linear and more sensitive to labor market conditions when it crosses the Beveridge threshold -- a point at which the labor market

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