DP19561 Revisiting the Phillips and Beveridge Curves: Insights from the 2020s Inflation Surge
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This paper reexamines the Phillips and Beveridge curves to explain the inflation surge in the U.S. during the 2020s. We argue that the pre-surge consensus regarding both curves requires substantial revision. We propose the Inverse-L (INV-L) New Keynesian Phillips Curve as a replacement for the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The INV-L curve is piecewise-linear and more sensitive to labor market conditions when it crosses the Beveridge threshold -- a point at which the labor market
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