DP20822 We Think That They Think: Political Affiliation and Higher-Order Beliefs

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Surveys consistently show large heterogeneity of macroeconomic beliefs across consumers, and yet very little is known about consumers' higher-order beliefs. In this paper, we conduct a series of novel surveys eliciting inflation forecasts from U.S. consumers. Crucially, we ask respondents to report their higher-order beliefs of consumers across the political spectrum. In this context, we document new facts regarding the role of partisanship in both own- and higher-order beliefs. We find that

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