The Trump administration has upended foundational principles of US Europe policy – abandoning support for NATO’s centrality, alliance solidarity, and shared values – while MAGA politics and public opinion, even if inconsistently applied, push toward restraint.  Under a restraint scenario, the United States would withdraw most forces from Europe by 2035, hand NATO leadership to Europeans, and exit the Middle East.  Even a status quo baseline offers no return to normalcy: US  fiscal deterioration,