The impact of the Iran war on Italian GDP will vary from 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points, depending on whether oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz resumes, the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) says in its April 2026 Economic Outlook.     The UPB considers two scenarios.     If the truce is consolidated and the Strait is gradually reopened, supplies and prices would gradually return to normal.     GDP growth would deteriorate compared to the pre-conflict scenario by 0.2 percentage points in both