The " fog of war " refers to confusion and uncertainty on the battlefield and the attendant possibility of fatal error. This principle has a parallel when it comes to the economic consequences of wars as well, especially when they occur in a region that is a chokepoint for the production and shipment of one-fifth of the world's oil and a third of its natural gas. Although no one really knows how deeply the ripple effects of the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran will impair the global economy,