The Central Lie of Prediction Markets
Teona Gherasim
A few hours before Donald Trump gave his State of the Union address, Republican sources told the PBS correspondent Lisa Desjardins that the speech would break records. The president would speak for more than two hours, she reported on X, and one reliable source claimed he might ramble on for 180 minutes. The post went viral. At about the same time, the market started to move on Kalshi, an online platform where people can invest money in the outcome of a given news event. ( Don’t call it
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