The oil market might face a new reality after the Iran war in which exports through the Strait of Hormuz do not return to the levels once considered normal, as shipowners now have to weigh the risk that fighting could abruptly break out in the volatile Persian Gulf. And Western commercial ships will likely hesitate to sail through Hormuz if it remains under Iran's de facto control, especially if they have to coordinate with the Revolutionary Guard, putting them at risk of violating U.S.