New York CNN  —  The wisdom of crowds is no match for the whims of the Holy Spirit. This week, the ascension of the first American pope surprised many, including the theoretically neutral online betting sites Polymarket and Kalshi. The sites, which allow people to wager on the outcomes of various events, brand themselves as “prediction markets” on the theory that when there’s money on the line, they are better, in aggregate, at anticipating results. While they’ve had some successes — notably,