Birmingham Council has been majority-Labour controlled since 2012, but our new local election YouGov MRP projection raises the question of how much longer that will last. Our findings suggest a major - 30 percentage point - drop in the share of the vote for Labour, who are now essentially neck and neck with Reform UK, with Labour just a fraction of a percentage point ahead, and the Greens a close second. This could mean we are on course for a seismic result in Britain’s second biggest city.