DP20345 The Distributional Effects of Oil Shocks

Business

Negative oil supply shocks since the 1980s have increased German inflation and reduced aggregate economic activity, and prompted moderate monetary tightening to counter these inflationary effects. Using 45 years of high-frequency German administrative data, we find that these shocks disproportionally harm low-income individuals: their earnings growth falls by two percentage points two years after a 10-percent exogenous oil price rise, while high-income individuals are largely unaffected. Job-

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DP20345 The Distributional Effects of Oil Shocks https://cepr.org/ - 12.06.2025 11:18

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DP20345 The Distributional Effects of Oil Shocks https://cepr.org/ - 12.06.2025 11:18