President Trump's announcement of an Iran deal — including a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — was met with excitement from investors . Part of that was general risk-on sentiment. The conflict in the Middle East has snarled global supply chains for months. Traders are ready for things to go back to normal. But the rally was also driven by the softening of a major market headwind: the prospect of rate hikes in 2026. FedWatch data is currently showing a 55% implied probability of higher