The Middle East conflict is a key factor in the negative forecast For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Email * SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our Privacy notice The UK economy is poised for a significant downturn, with growth set to falter and unemployment projected to worsen,