When imagining how the U.S.-China relationship might devolve into war, experts often cite Taiwan as the most obvious flashpoint. In recent years, after all, China has escalated its campaign of coercion against the island democracy, lobbing missiles over it, staging a blockade during live-fire military exercises, and threatening catastrophic punishments against third countries that expand ties with Taipei. Although the United States does not have a defense treaty with Taiwan, Beijing’s