Are we, at long last, seeing formerly friendly states begin to balance against a rogue America? Such a shift would constitute a sea change in world affairs. If it does occur, it will be entirely due to the strategic myopia of the Trump administration and the predatory impulses of an increasingly erratic president. For the past hundred years or so, America’s rise to global dominance was a partial exception to old-style balance-of-power theory, insofar as its preponderant position did not induce