Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical importance such as “ Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?” and “ Will Israel strike the Iranian military again before September 2025?” Forecasters estimate the probabilities of the events occurring—a more informative guess than a simple “yes” or “no”—weeks to months in advance,