The U.S.-China trade war from Trump’s first administration offers a glimpse of the effects a more protectionist trade policy might have this time around. President-elect Trump has promised to impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and tariffs as high as 60% on goods coming from China on day one of his new administration. What will these protectionist policies accomplish? Looking at research on the effects of the 2018–19 U.S.-China trade war might provide some insight.