This paper interprets Brexit as a two-stage institutional rupture that reshaped migration through expectations, exposure, and stress channels. Using a UK–Germany Difference-in-Differences framework, I show that the 2016 referendum generated a sharp decline in UK net migration relative to Germany, driven primarily by a contraction in immigration rather than simple outward flight. The 2021 termination of EU free movement reinforced this adjustment on the gross inflow margin, completing the

Tag-uri: Referendum