Decoupling without deglobalisation: The new geography of trade blocs

Tamara Ceaikovski

As geopolitical tensions rise, fears of deglobalisation have taken centre stage. However, world trade has remained surprisingly resilient, at least through 2023. This column uses bilateral trade data from 187 countries between 2015 and 2023 to identify decoupling patterns and their economic impacts. Trade reorientation mirrors political alliances more than comparative advantage, with a quarter of countries aligning with the US, another quarter with China, and half remaining unaligned. The

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