As global debt continues to climb, evaluating debt risks is critical. This column introduces a novel ‘debt-at-risk’ framework that uses information on current macro-financial and political conditions to construct the full distribution of potential future debt outcomes. The framework shows that debt risks are high, rising, and tilted to the upside. Debt levels are projected to reach 117% of GDP by 2027 in a severe adverse scenario, nearly 20 percentage points above projections. Moreover, debt-at-